Category: The MIQ Letter

Weekly Brief | July 7, 2026 | Macro Insights Queen Hi everyone, June NFP printed +57k, well below the +114k consensus. On the surface, this looks soft. But the internals are more complicated — and in some ways more hawkish than the headline suggests. The market treated the weak print as dovish: the front end rallied while…

WEEKLY | June 30, 2026 | Macro Insights Queen Hi everyone, last Friday’s PCE print was the test we’d been waiting for. It didn’t break the thesis. It sharpened it. 📌 The Regime: Mid-Cycle Reacceleration Is Tipping Into Overheat Nothing about the framework changed today. What changed is how much evidence is now sitting on…

Regime Snapshot Growth Inflation Liquidity Policy Accelerating Accelerating Expanding, despite the rate hold Market-led under Warsh, price stability is the stated priority The 5 Things That Matter Post-FOMC (as of June 23, 2026) 1. Warsh is building a market-led Fed. Chair Kevin Warsh has deliberately stepped back from explicit forward guidance. He wants markets pricing…

WEEKLY | May 26, 2026 | Macro Insights Queen Hi everyone — last edition we took a cautious view on the relief rally, arguing that ceasefire headlines didn’t fundamentally change the oil shock regime and that markets were too optimistic on fading energy risk. That said, we also flagged that the AI rally made sense…

WEEKLY | April 13, 2026 | Macro Insights Queen Hi everyone — this week’s edition follows a similar structure to the web version, but I want to be more direct about what actually matters. The ceasefire headlines may have eased immediate panic, but the underlying macro regime has not changed. 📌 What mattered this past…

March 24, 2026 We’re back. After a period of building and refining the framework, MIQ Weekly is relaunching—with a sharper focus on regime, data, and cross-asset signals. This first edition focuses on a critical shift now driving markets: the oil/ energy shock due to Hormuz block and the Middle East conflicts. 1. The Big Picture in Four…