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The Jobs Report Everyone Got Wrong: Why +57k, 4.2% Unemployment, and Seasonal Noise All Point to the Same Regime
Weekly Brief | July 7, 2026 | Macro Insights Queen Hi everyone, June NFP printed +57k, well below the +114k consensus. On the surface, this looks soft. But the internals are more complicated — and in some ways more hawkish than the headline suggests. The market treated the weak print as dovish: the front end rallied while…
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Post-May PCE: Why We Still Lean Overheat Risk Over Disinflation
WEEKLY | June 30, 2026 | Macro Insights Queen Hi everyone, last Friday’s PCE print was the test we’d been waiting for. It didn’t break the thesis. It sharpened it. 📌 The Regime: Mid-Cycle Reacceleration Is Tipping Into Overheat Nothing about the framework changed today. What changed is how much evidence is now sitting on…
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Pre-PCE Macro Regime Update
Regime Snapshot Growth Inflation Liquidity Policy Accelerating Accelerating Expanding, despite the rate hold Market-led under Warsh, price stability is the stated priority The 5 Things That Matter Post-FOMC (as of June 23, 2026) 1. Warsh is building a market-led Fed. Chair Kevin Warsh has deliberately stepped back from explicit forward guidance. He wants markets pricing…
